TSLA

Consumer Discretionary / Automobiles & Auto Parts
Tesla manufactures and sells electric vehicles globally while generating ancillary revenue from energy storage solutions, regulatory credits, and automotive services.
Recommended: koller_dcf
$348.95
Current market price
Source: FMP +EDGAR

Market implications

What the market is baking into $348.95. Does not change with your assumptions.

Implied terminal growth (cv_g)
13.92%
solved so market model = $348.95 with the analyst inputs below
WACC (CAPM)
13.97%
β: 1.83 · Rf: 4.0% · ERP: 5.5%
Ke: 14.05% · Kd(AT): 2.95%
E/V: 99.3% · D/V: 0.7%
CV ROIC (from historical)
14.78%
CV NOPLAT = $15,950M
Tax rate / Op cash / Shares
Forecast tax: 27.0%
Op cash %: 3.0%
Shares: 3,225M
5-year consensus forecast
YearRevenue ($M)EBITDA ($M)
2025 94,911 15,624
2026 106,238 17,489
2027 120,165 19,781
2028 142,689 23,489
2029 194,263 31,979
Validation: set your view's WACC = 13.97%, cv_g = 13.92%, tax = 27.0%. Your model should produce exactly $348.95.

Your view

Yellow cells are editable.

Your model output

Model share price: $45.98
vs market: -86.8%
Enterprise value: $162,662M
Operating value: $129,030M
Continuing value: $121,518M
Debt: $13,623M
Excess cash: $33,632M
Residuals: B/S 0.0M · TFI 0.0M · TII 0.0M · CFI 0.0M

Forecast ratios (yellow cells)

Held constant across forecast years (H–M). Defaults are the most recent historical ratio. Override to express a different view (margin compression, working-capital efficiency, etc.).

Income statement

D&A % of revenue 5.49%
Non-op losses % of rev 0.00%

Working capital

AR % of revenue 4.52%
Unbilled rev % of rev 0.00%
Inventory % of rev 12.30%
Other CA % of rev 5.49%
AP % of rev 16.64%
Other ST liab % of rev 9.52%

Long-term assets & liab

LT investments % of rev 0.00%
Net fixed assets % of rev 46.84%
Other LT assets % of rev 16.87%
Other LT liab % of rev 9.43%

Consensus forecast (your editable copy)

Defaults are FMP analyst consensus. Edit any cell; Recalculate uses these values.

YearRevenue ($M)EBITDA ($M) EBITDA marginYoY rev growth
2025 16.5% —
2026 16.5% +11.9%
2027 16.5% +13.1%
2028 16.5% +18.7%
2029 16.5% +36.1%
CV NOPLAT: $17,375M · CV ROIC: 16.11%

Sensitivity: model price by WACC × cv_g

5×5 grid centered on your assumptions. Green cells > market, red < market. Computes 25 model runs (~10s).

Click “Run sensitivity” above.

Monte Carlo simulation

Sample WACC, cv_g, revenue multiplier, and EBITDA margin shift; see distribution of fair value.

Distribution widths (σ):
Each sample: draws values from normal distributions centered on your current assumptions, runs the full DCF, records the model price. 100 samples ≈ 60s.

Configure σ above and click “Run Monte Carlo”.

Peers (LLM-proposed comparables)

3–5 publicly-traded comps with rationale + suggested multiples. ~$0.002/call, cached 30d.

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Red flags (accounting / governance / operational / liquidity)

Severity-tiered concerns with explicit evidence. ~$0.004/call, cached 30d.

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Recent news (web search)

Material items from the last 60 days with source links. ~$0.02–0.05/call, cached 6h.

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Snapshots

LabelModel priceSaved
TSLA aggressive WACC 8% $117.97 2026-05-19T15:13:52
TSLA baseline test $86.57 2026-05-19T15:13:52