MSFT

Information Technology / Software - Infrastructure
Microsoft develops, licenses, and delivers cloud-based and on-premises software, services, and devices across productivity, intelligent cloud, and personal computing segments, generating recurring subscription and licensing revenue.
Recommended: koller_dcf
$421.06
Current market price
Source: FMP +EDGAR

Market implications

What the market is baking into $421.06. Does not change with your assumptions.

Implied terminal growth (cv_g)
5.48%
solved so market model = $421.06 with the analyst inputs below
WACC (CAPM)
9.73%
β: 1.09 · Rf: 4.0% · ERP: 5.5%
Ke: 10.01% · Kd(AT): 1.75%
E/V: 96.5% · D/V: 3.5%
CV ROIC (from historical)
56.46%
CV NOPLAT = $196,378M
Tax rate / Op cash / Shares
Forecast tax: 17.6%
Op cash %: 3.0%
Shares: 7,433M
5-year consensus forecast
YearRevenue ($M)EBITDA ($M)
2025 279,211 146,270
2026 329,396 172,560
2027 384,288 201,316
2028 454,319 238,003
2029 537,235 281,440
Validation: set your view's WACC = 9.73%, cv_g = 5.48%, tax = 17.6%. Your model should produce exactly $421.06.

Your view

Yellow cells are editable.

Your model output

Model share price: $270.79
vs market: -35.7%
Enterprise value: $2,110,610M
Operating value: $1,980,570M
Continuing value: $1,541,938M
Debt: $97,852M
Excess cash: $68,177M
Residuals: B/S 0.0M · TFI 0.0M · TII 0.0M · CFI 0.0M

Forecast ratios (yellow cells)

Held constant across forecast years (H–M). Defaults are the most recent historical ratio. Override to express a different view (margin compression, working-capital efficiency, etc.).

Income statement

D&A % of revenue 9.09%
Non-op losses % of rev 0.00%

Working capital

AR % of revenue 23.22%
Unbilled rev % of rev 0.00%
Inventory % of rev 0.51%
Other CA % of rev 10.62%
AP % of rev 8.97%
Other ST liab % of rev 36.07%

Long-term assets & liab

LT investments % of rev 5.96%
Net fixed assets % of rev 44.19%
Other LT assets % of rev 33.73%
Other LT liab % of rev 14.45%

Consensus forecast (your editable copy)

Defaults are FMP analyst consensus. Edit any cell; Recalculate uses these values.

YearRevenue ($M)EBITDA ($M) EBITDA marginYoY rev growth
2025 52.4% —
2026 52.4% +18.0%
2027 52.4% +16.7%
2028 52.4% +18.2%
2029 52.4% +18.3%
CV NOPLAT: $194,943M · CV ROIC: 56.05%

Sensitivity: model price by WACC × cv_g

5×5 grid centered on your assumptions. Green cells > market, red < market. Computes 25 model runs (~10s).

Click “Run sensitivity” above.

Monte Carlo simulation

Sample WACC, cv_g, revenue multiplier, and EBITDA margin shift; see distribution of fair value.

Distribution widths (σ):
Each sample: draws values from normal distributions centered on your current assumptions, runs the full DCF, records the model price. 100 samples ≈ 60s.

Configure σ above and click “Run Monte Carlo”.

Peers (LLM-proposed comparables)

3–5 publicly-traded comps with rationale + suggested multiples. ~$0.002/call, cached 30d.

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Red flags (accounting / governance / operational / liquidity)

Severity-tiered concerns with explicit evidence. ~$0.004/call, cached 30d.

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Recent news (web search)

Material items from the last 60 days with source links. ~$0.02–0.05/call, cached 6h.

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Snapshots

No saved snapshots yet.