JNJ

Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals & Medical Devices
Diversified healthcare company developing, manufacturing, and selling prescription pharmaceuticals and advanced medical devices for complex diseases and conditions globally.
Recommended: koller_dcf
$229.32
Current market price
Source: FMP +EDGAR

Market implications

What the market is baking into $229.32. Does not change with your assumptions.

Implied terminal growth (cv_g)
1.78%
solved so market model = $229.32 with the analyst inputs below
WACC (CAPM)
5.15%
β: 0.26 · Rf: 4.0% · ERP: 5.5%
Ke: 5.45% · Kd(AT): 1.67%
E/V: 92.1% · D/V: 7.9%
CV ROIC (from historical)
26.61%
CV NOPLAT = $25,587M
Tax rate / Op cash / Shares
Forecast tax: 17.7%
Op cash %: 3.0%
Shares: 2,429M
5-year consensus forecast
YearRevenue ($M)EBITDA ($M)
2025 93,759 31,148
2026 100,891 33,517
2027 107,698 35,778
2028 114,933 38,182
2029 121,576 40,388
Validation: set your view's WACC = 5.15%, cv_g = 1.78%, tax = 17.7%. Your model should produce exactly $229.32.

Your view

Yellow cells are editable.

Your model output

Model share price: $106.51
vs market: -53.6%
Enterprise value: $295,303M
Operating value: $279,213M
Continuing value: $197,145M
Debt: $36,634M
Excess cash: $21,857M
Residuals: B/S 0.0M · TFI 0.0M · TII 0.0M · CFI 0.0M

Forecast ratios (yellow cells)

Held constant across forecast years (H–M). Defaults are the most recent historical ratio. Override to express a different view (margin compression, working-capital efficiency, etc.).

Income statement

D&A % of revenue 8.26%
Non-op losses % of rev 0.00%

Working capital

AR % of revenue 21.31%
Unbilled rev % of rev 0.00%
Inventory % of rev 14.01%
Other CA % of rev 0.00%
AP % of rev 41.03%
Other ST liab % of rev 8.89%

Long-term assets & liab

LT investments % of rev 0.00%
Net fixed assets % of rev 23.10%
Other LT assets % of rev 24.63%
Other LT liab % of rev 31.12%

Consensus forecast (your editable copy)

Defaults are FMP analyst consensus. Edit any cell; Recalculate uses these values.

YearRevenue ($M)EBITDA ($M) EBITDA marginYoY rev growth
2025 33.2% —
2026 33.2% +7.6%
2027 33.2% +6.7%
2028 33.2% +6.7%
2029 33.2% +5.8%
CV NOPLAT: $26,217M · CV ROIC: 27.27%

Sensitivity: model price by WACC × cv_g

5×5 grid centered on your assumptions. Green cells > market, red < market. Computes 25 model runs (~10s).

Click “Run sensitivity” above.

Monte Carlo simulation

Sample WACC, cv_g, revenue multiplier, and EBITDA margin shift; see distribution of fair value.

Distribution widths (σ):
Each sample: draws values from normal distributions centered on your current assumptions, runs the full DCF, records the model price. 100 samples ≈ 60s.

Configure σ above and click “Run Monte Carlo”.

Peers (LLM-proposed comparables)

3–5 publicly-traded comps with rationale + suggested multiples. ~$0.002/call, cached 30d.

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Red flags (accounting / governance / operational / liquidity)

Severity-tiered concerns with explicit evidence. ~$0.004/call, cached 30d.

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Recent news (web search)

Material items from the last 60 days with source links. ~$0.02–0.05/call, cached 6h.

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Snapshots

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