TSLA

Consumer Discretionary / Automobiles & Auto Parts
Tesla manufactures and sells electric vehicles globally while generating ancillary revenue from energy storage solutions, regulatory credits, and automotive services.
Recommended: koller_dcf
$407.76
Current market price
Source: FMP +EDGAR

Market implications

What the market is baking into $407.76. Does not change with your assumptions.

Implied terminal growth (cv_g)
13.78%
solved so market model = $407.76 with the analyst inputs below
WACC (CAPM)
13.84%
β: 1.80 · Rf: 4.0% · ERP: 5.5%
Ke: 13.91% · Kd(AT): 2.95%
E/V: 99.4% · D/V: 0.6%
CV ROIC (from historical)
14.81%
CV NOPLAT = $18,560M
Tax rate / Op cash / Shares
Forecast tax: 27.0%
Op cash %: 3.0%
Shares: 3,225M
5-year consensus forecast
YearRevenue ($M)EBITDA ($M)
2025 94,911 15,624
2026 103,601 17,055
2027 118,544 19,514
2028 139,757 23,006
2029 226,061 37,214
Validation: set your view's WACC = 13.84%, cv_g = 13.78%, tax = 27.0%. Your model should produce exactly $407.76.

Your view

Yellow cells are editable.

Your model output

Model share price: $49.36
vs market: -87.9%
Enterprise value: $173,565M
Operating value: $139,933M
Continuing value: $141,458M
Debt: $13,623M
Excess cash: $33,632M
Residuals: B/S 0.0M · TFI 0.0M · TII 0.0M · CFI 0.0M

Forecast ratios (yellow cells)

Held constant across forecast years (H–M). Defaults are the most recent historical ratio. Override to express a different view (margin compression, working-capital efficiency, etc.).

Income statement

D&A % of revenue 5.49%
Non-op losses % of rev 0.00%

Working capital

AR % of revenue 4.52%
Unbilled rev % of rev 0.00%
Inventory % of rev 12.30%
Other CA % of rev 5.49%
AP % of rev 16.64%
Other ST liab % of rev 9.52%

Long-term assets & liab

LT investments % of rev 0.00%
Net fixed assets % of rev 46.84%
Other LT assets % of rev 16.87%
Other LT liab % of rev 9.43%

Consensus forecast (your editable copy)

Defaults are FMP analyst consensus. Edit any cell; Recalculate uses these values.

YearRevenue ($M)EBITDA ($M) EBITDA marginYoY rev growth
2025 16.5% —
2026 16.5% +9.2%
2027 16.5% +14.4%
2028 16.5% +17.9%
2029 16.5% +61.8%
CV NOPLAT: $20,219M · CV ROIC: 16.14%

Sensitivity: model price by WACC × cv_g

5×5 grid centered on your assumptions. Green cells > market, red < market. Computes 25 model runs (~10s).

Click “Run sensitivity” above.

Monte Carlo simulation

Sample WACC, cv_g, revenue multiplier, and EBITDA margin shift; see distribution of fair value.

Distribution widths (σ):
Each sample: draws values from normal distributions centered on your current assumptions, runs the full DCF, records the model price. 100 samples ≈ 60s.

Configure σ above and click “Run Monte Carlo”.

Peers (LLM-proposed comparables)

3–5 publicly-traded comps with rationale + suggested multiples. ~$0.002/call, cached 30d.

▸ expand

Red flags (accounting / governance / operational / liquidity)

Severity-tiered concerns with explicit evidence. ~$0.004/call, cached 30d.

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Recent news (web search)

Material items from the last 60 days with source links. ~$0.02–0.05/call, cached 6h.

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Snapshots

LabelModel priceSaved
TSLA aggressive WACC 8% $117.97 2026-05-19T15:13:52
TSLA baseline test $86.57 2026-05-19T15:13:52