TSLA

Consumer Discretionary / Automobiles & Components

Vertically integrated manufacturer and seller of electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and related services with direct-to-consumer sales model and regulatory credit monetization.

Recommended: koller_dcf

$417.26

Current market price

Source: FMP +EDGAR

Market implications

What the market is baking into $417.26. Does not change with your assumptions.

Implied terminal growth (cv_g)

Outside solver range — price may imply growth above WACC.

WACC (CAPM)

13.79%

β: 1.79 · Rf: 4.0% · ERP: 5.5%

Ke: 13.86% · Kd(AT): 2.95%

E/V: 99.4% · D/V: 0.6%

CV ROIC (from historical)

17.18%

CV NOPLAT = $18,378M

Tax rate / Op cash / Shares

Forecast tax: 27.0%

Op cash %: 3.0%

Shares: 3,225M

5-year consensus forecast

Year	Revenue ($M)	EBITDA ($M)
2025	94,911	15,624
2026	102,887	16,937
2027	118,189	19,456
2028	139,795	23,013
2029	223,839	36,848

Validation: set your view's WACC = 13.79%, cv_g = ?%, tax = 27.0%. Your model should produce exactly $417.26.

Your view

Yellow cells are editable.

Your model output

Model share price: $54.36

vs market: -87.0%

Enterprise value: $189,712M

Operating value: $148,810M

Continuing value: $143,601M

Debt: $13,623M

Excess cash: $33,632M

Residuals: B/S 0.0M · TFI 0.0M · TII 0.0M · CFI 0.0M

Forecast ratios (yellow cells)

Held constant across forecast years (H–M). Defaults are the most recent historical ratio. Override to express a different view (margin compression, working-capital efficiency, etc.).

Income statement

D&A % of revenue	5.49%
Non-op losses % of rev	0.00%

Working capital

AR % of revenue	4.52%
Unbilled rev % of rev	0.00%
Inventory % of rev	12.30%
Other CA % of rev	5.49%
AP % of rev	16.64%
Other ST liab % of rev	9.52%

Long-term assets & liab

LT investments % of rev	0.00%
Net fixed assets % of rev	46.84%
Other LT assets % of rev	16.87%
Other LT liab % of rev	9.43%

Consensus forecast (your editable copy)

Defaults are FMP analyst consensus. Edit any cell; Recalculate uses these values.

Year	EBITDA margin	YoY rev growth
2025	16.5%	—
2026	16.5%	+8.4%
2027	16.5%	+14.9%
2028	16.5%	+18.3%
2029	16.5%	+60.1%

CV NOPLAT: $20,020M · CV ROIC: 18.71%

Sensitivity: model price by WACC × cv_g

5×5 grid centered on your assumptions. Green cells > market, red < market. Computes 25 model runs (~10s).

Click “Run sensitivity” above.

Monte Carlo simulation

Sample WACC, cv_g, revenue multiplier, and EBITDA margin shift; see distribution of fair value.

Samples:

Distribution widths (σ):

WACC σ: cv_g σ: Rev mult σ: EBITDA shift σ:

Each sample: draws values from normal distributions centered on your current assumptions, runs the full DCF, records the model price. 100 samples ≈ 60s.

Configure σ above and click “Run Monte Carlo”.

Peers (LLM-proposed comparables)

3–5 publicly-traded comps with rationale + suggested multiples. ~$0.002/call, cached 30d.

▸ expand

Red flags (accounting / governance / operational / liquidity)

Severity-tiered concerns with explicit evidence. ~$0.004/call, cached 30d.

▸ expand

Recent news (web search)

Material items from the last 60 days with source links. ~$0.02–0.05/call, cached 6h.

▸ expand

Lookback:

Snapshots

Label	Model price	Saved
TSLA aggressive WACC 8%	$117.97	2026-05-19T15:13:52
TSLA baseline test	$86.57	2026-05-19T15:13:52