MRK

Healthcare / Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
Merck discovers, manufactures, and markets prescription pharmaceuticals, vaccines, and animal health products globally, generating recurring revenue from patent-protected drugs and established vaccine franchises.
Recommended: koller_dcf
$112.99
Current market price
Source: FMP +EDGAR

Market implications

What the market is baking into $112.99. Does not change with your assumptions.

Implied terminal growth (cv_g)
Outside solver range — price may imply growth above WACC.
WACC (CAPM)
4.66%
β: 0.20 · Rf: 4.0% · ERP: 5.5%
Ke: 5.07% · Kd(AT): 2.33%
E/V: 84.8% · D/V: 15.2%
CV ROIC (from historical)
46.74%
CV NOPLAT = $31,290M
Tax rate / Op cash / Shares
Forecast tax: 13.3%
Op cash %: 3.0%
Shares: 2,502M
5-year consensus forecast
YearRevenue ($M)EBITDA ($M)
2025 64,850 35,025
2026 66,708 36,029
2027 70,152 37,889
2028 74,893 40,449
2029 74,926 40,467
Validation: set your view's WACC = 4.66%, cv_g = ?%, tax = 13.3%. Your model should produce exactly $112.99.

Your view

Yellow cells are editable.

Your model output

Model share price: $132.25
vs market: +17.0%
Enterprise value: $369,217M
Operating value: $346,762M
Continuing value: $242,954M
Debt: $38,270M
Excess cash: $11,764M
Residuals: B/S 0.0M · TFI 0.0M · TII 0.0M · CFI 0.0M

Forecast ratios (yellow cells)

Held constant across forecast years (H–M). Defaults are the most recent historical ratio. Override to express a different view (margin compression, working-capital efficiency, etc.).

Income statement

D&A % of revenue 7.01%
Non-op losses % of rev 0.00%

Working capital

AR % of revenue 16.02%
Unbilled rev % of rev 0.00%
Inventory % of rev 9.52%
Other CA % of rev 13.57%
AP % of rev 30.81%
Other ST liab % of rev 8.91%

Long-term assets & liab

LT investments % of rev 0.72%
Net fixed assets % of rev 35.25%
Other LT assets % of rev 26.81%
Other LT liab % of rev 10.87%

Consensus forecast (your editable copy)

Defaults are FMP analyst consensus. Edit any cell; Recalculate uses these values.

YearRevenue ($M)EBITDA ($M) EBITDA marginYoY rev growth
2025 54.0% —
2026 54.0% +2.9%
2027 54.0% +5.2%
2028 54.0% +6.8%
2029 54.0% +0.0%
CV NOPLAT: $31,020M · CV ROIC: 46.34%

Sensitivity: model price by WACC × cv_g

5×5 grid centered on your assumptions. Green cells > market, red < market. Computes 25 model runs (~10s).

Click “Run sensitivity” above.

Monte Carlo simulation

Sample WACC, cv_g, revenue multiplier, and EBITDA margin shift; see distribution of fair value.

Distribution widths (σ):
Each sample: draws values from normal distributions centered on your current assumptions, runs the full DCF, records the model price. 100 samples ≈ 60s.

Configure σ above and click “Run Monte Carlo”.

Peers (LLM-proposed comparables)

3–5 publicly-traded comps with rationale + suggested multiples. ~$0.002/call, cached 30d.

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Red flags (accounting / governance / operational / liquidity)

Severity-tiered concerns with explicit evidence. ~$0.004/call, cached 30d.

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Recent news (web search)

Material items from the last 60 days with source links. ~$0.02–0.05/call, cached 6h.

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Snapshots

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