JNJ

Healthcare / Drug Manufacturers - General
Diversified healthcare conglomerate that develops, manufactures, and sells innovative pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and consumer health products across multiple therapeutic areas and geographies.
Recommended: koller_dcf
$273.04
Current market price
Source: FMP +EDGAR

Market implications

What the market is baking into $273.04. Does not change with your assumptions.

Implied terminal growth (cv_g)
1.72%
solved so market model = $273.04 with the analyst inputs below
WACC (CAPM)
5.03%
β: 0.23 · Rf: 4.0% · ERP: 5.5%
Ke: 5.27% · Kd(AT): 1.67%
E/V: 93.3% · D/V: 6.7%
CV ROIC (from historical)
29.86%
CV NOPLAT = $26,350M
Tax rate / Op cash / Shares
Forecast tax: 17.7%
Op cash %: 3.0%
Shares: 2,429M
5-year consensus forecast
YearRevenue ($M)EBITDA ($M)
2025 93,759 31,148
2026 101,236 33,632
2027 108,638 36,090
2028 117,107 38,904
2029 125,199 41,592
Validation: set your view's WACC = 5.03%, cv_g = 1.72%, tax = 17.7%. Your model should produce exactly $273.04.

Your view

Yellow cells are editable.

Your model output

Model share price: $113.24
vs market: -58.5%
Enterprise value: $311,641M
Operating value: $289,783M
Continuing value: $205,250M
Debt: $36,634M
Excess cash: $21,857M
Residuals: B/S 0.0M · TFI 0.0M · TII 0.0M · CFI 0.0M

Forecast ratios (yellow cells)

Held constant across forecast years (H–M). Defaults are the most recent historical ratio. Override to express a different view (margin compression, working-capital efficiency, etc.).

Income statement

D&A % of revenue 8.26%
Non-op losses % of rev 0.00%

Working capital

AR % of revenue 21.31%
Unbilled rev % of rev 0.00%
Inventory % of rev 14.01%
Other CA % of rev 0.00%
AP % of rev 41.03%
Other ST liab % of rev 8.89%

Long-term assets & liab

LT investments % of rev 0.00%
Net fixed assets % of rev 23.10%
Other LT assets % of rev 24.63%
Other LT liab % of rev 31.12%

Consensus forecast (your editable copy)

Defaults are FMP analyst consensus. Edit any cell; Recalculate uses these values.

YearRevenue ($M)EBITDA ($M) EBITDA marginYoY rev growth
2025 33.2% —
2026 33.2% +8.0%
2027 33.2% +7.3%
2028 33.2% +7.8%
2029 33.2% +6.9%
CV NOPLAT: $26,998M · CV ROIC: 30.59%

Sensitivity: model price by WACC × cv_g

5×5 grid centered on your assumptions. Green cells > market, red < market. Computes 25 model runs (~10s).

Click “Run sensitivity” above.

Monte Carlo simulation

Sample WACC, cv_g, revenue multiplier, and EBITDA margin shift; see distribution of fair value.

Distribution widths (σ):
Each sample: draws values from normal distributions centered on your current assumptions, runs the full DCF, records the model price. 100 samples ≈ 60s.

Configure σ above and click “Run Monte Carlo”.

Peers (LLM-proposed comparables)

3–5 publicly-traded comps with rationale + suggested multiples. ~$0.002/call, cached 30d.

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Red flags (accounting / governance / operational / liquidity)

Severity-tiered concerns with explicit evidence. ~$0.004/call, cached 30d.

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Recent news (web search)

Material items from the last 60 days with source links. ~$0.02–0.05/call, cached 6h.

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Snapshots

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