F

Consumer Discretionary / Automobiles
Global automotive manufacturer designing, producing, and selling vehicles (Ford, Lincoln brands) and related services through a dealer network, supplemented by captive finance (Ford Credit) and commercial fleet operations.
Recommended: multiples_only
$13.99
Current market price
Source: FMP +EDGAR

Market implications

What the market is baking into $13.99. Does not change with your assumptions.

Implied terminal growth (cv_g)
n/a (out of range)
WACC (CAPM)
3.95%
β: 1.83 · Rf: 4.0% · ERP: 5.5%
Ke: 14.05% · Kd(AT): 0.59%
E/V: 24.9% · D/V: 75.1%
CV ROIC (from historical)
3.22%
CV NOPLAT = $5,878M
Tax rate / Op cash / Shares
Forecast tax: —%
Op cash %: 3.0%
Shares: 3,979M
5-year consensus forecast
YearRevenue ($M)EBITDA ($M)
2025 182,206 12,267
2026 185,252 12,472
2027 187,315 12,611
2028 197,843 13,319
2029 197,643 13,306
Validation: set your view's WACC = 3.95%, cv_g = ?%, tax = historical%. Your model should produce exactly $13.99.

Your view

Yellow cells are editable.

Your model output

Model share price: $-24.61
vs market: -275.9%
Enterprise value: $63,594M
Operating value: $23,975M
Continuing value: $10,883M
Debt: $161,514M
Excess cash: $32,798M
Residuals: B/S 0.0M · TFI 0.0M · TII 0.0M · CFI 0.0M

Forecast ratios (yellow cells)

Held constant across forecast years (H–M). Defaults are the most recent historical ratio. Override to express a different view (margin compression, working-capital efficiency, etc.).

Income statement

D&A % of revenue 3.17%
Non-op losses % of rev 0.00%

Working capital

AR % of revenue 35.99%
Unbilled rev % of rev 0.00%
Inventory % of rev 8.08%
Other CA % of rev 2.49%
AP % of rev 14.67%
Other ST liab % of rev 12.74%

Long-term assets & liab

LT investments % of rev 3.69%
Net fixed assets % of rev 33.75%
Other LT assets % of rev 49.08%
Other LT liab % of rev 15.20%

Consensus forecast (your editable copy)

Defaults are FMP analyst consensus. Edit any cell; Recalculate uses these values.

YearRevenue ($M)EBITDA ($M) EBITDA marginYoY rev growth
2025 6.7% —
2026 6.7% +1.7%
2027 6.7% +1.1%
2028 6.7% +5.6%
2029 6.7% -0.1%
CV NOPLAT: $5,878M · CV ROIC: 3.22%

Sensitivity: model price by WACC × cv_g

5×5 grid centered on your assumptions. Green cells > market, red < market. Computes 25 model runs (~10s).

Click “Run sensitivity” above.

Monte Carlo simulation

Sample WACC, cv_g, revenue multiplier, and EBITDA margin shift; see distribution of fair value.

Distribution widths (σ):
Each sample: draws values from normal distributions centered on your current assumptions, runs the full DCF, records the model price. 100 samples ≈ 60s.

Configure σ above and click “Run Monte Carlo”.

Peers (LLM-proposed comparables)

3–5 publicly-traded comps with rationale + suggested multiples. ~$0.002/call, cached 30d.

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Red flags (accounting / governance / operational / liquidity)

Severity-tiered concerns with explicit evidence. ~$0.004/call, cached 30d.

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Recent news (web search)

Material items from the last 60 days with source links. ~$0.02–0.05/call, cached 6h.

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Snapshots

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