F

Consumer Discretionary / Automobiles
Integrated automotive manufacturer and captive financier selling vehicles (Ford Blue, Model e, Pro segments) and financing/leasing services globally through dealer networks.
Recommended: multiples_only
$13.21
Current market price
Source: FMP +EDGAR

Market implications

What the market is baking into $13.21. Does not change with your assumptions.

Implied terminal growth (cv_g)
-2.41%
solved so market model = $13.21 with the analyst inputs below
WACC (CAPM)
3.59%
β: 1.66 · Rf: 4.0% · ERP: 5.5%
Ke: 13.15% · Kd(AT): 0.59%
E/V: 23.9% · D/V: 76.1%
CV ROIC (from historical)
5.10%
CV NOPLAT = $5,871M
Tax rate / Op cash / Shares
Forecast tax: —%
Op cash %: 3.0%
Shares: 3,979M
5-year consensus forecast
YearRevenue ($M)EBITDA ($M)
2025 182,206 12,193
2026 193,551 12,952
2027 191,993 12,848
2028 200,158 13,394
2029 199,673 13,362
Validation: set your view's WACC = 3.59%, cv_g = -2.41%, tax = historical%. Your model should produce exactly $13.21.

Your view

Yellow cells are editable.

Your model output

Model share price: $-4.93
vs market: -137.3%
Enterprise value: $141,924M
Operating value: $39,627M
Continuing value: $24,790M
Debt: $161,514M
Excess cash: $32,798M
Residuals: B/S 0.0M · TFI 0.0M · TII 0.0M · CFI 0.0M

Forecast ratios (yellow cells)

Held constant across forecast years (H–M). Defaults are the most recent historical ratio. Override to express a different view (margin compression, working-capital efficiency, etc.).

Income statement

D&A % of revenue 3.17%
Non-op losses % of rev 0.00%

Working capital

AR % of revenue 35.99%
Unbilled rev % of rev 0.00%
Inventory % of rev 8.08%
Other CA % of rev 2.49%
AP % of rev 14.67%
Other ST liab % of rev 12.74%

Long-term assets & liab

LT investments % of rev 3.69%
Net fixed assets % of rev 33.75%
Other LT assets % of rev 49.08%
Other LT liab % of rev 15.20%

Consensus forecast (your editable copy)

Defaults are FMP analyst consensus. Edit any cell; Recalculate uses these values.

YearRevenue ($M)EBITDA ($M) EBITDA marginYoY rev growth
2025 6.7% —
2026 6.7% +6.2%
2027 6.7% -0.8%
2028 6.7% +4.3%
2029 6.7% -0.2%
CV NOPLAT: $5,871M · CV ROIC: 5.10%

Sensitivity: model price by WACC × cv_g

5×5 grid centered on your assumptions. Green cells > market, red < market. Computes 25 model runs (~10s).

Click “Run sensitivity” above.

Monte Carlo simulation

Sample WACC, cv_g, revenue multiplier, and EBITDA margin shift; see distribution of fair value.

Distribution widths (σ):
Each sample: draws values from normal distributions centered on your current assumptions, runs the full DCF, records the model price. 100 samples ≈ 60s.

Configure σ above and click “Run Monte Carlo”.

Peers (LLM-proposed comparables)

3–5 publicly-traded comps with rationale + suggested multiples. ~$0.002/call, cached 30d.

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Red flags (accounting / governance / operational / liquidity)

Severity-tiered concerns with explicit evidence. ~$0.004/call, cached 30d.

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Recent news (web search)

Material items from the last 60 days with source links. ~$0.02–0.05/call, cached 6h.

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Snapshots

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